The Odds

We may not realize it, but our lives are based on mathematics. Everything we do has what I call odds attached to it. You know what odds are I am sure. If you were in a casino the odds would show you your chances of winning at the particular game you were playing. For example the odds of getting past the first roll of the dice in craps are against you, but they change to your favor if you make it past the first roll. The same is true in life. When we live our life we are taking chances even if we don’t realize it. The odds on being killed by lightning are 1 in 2,320,000, but the odds on being hit by lightning are 1 in 576,000. If you look at the population of the United States it is about 320 million. This means about 55 people will be hit by lightning every year. These poor people will go outside or be outside and maybe trying to get inside but not making it. Even though the odds were greatly in their favor they were still hit.

Every time we go out into the street or even stay at home the odds of us getting murdered are 1 in 18,000. Besides being killed there is another bad set of odds and that is the murderer will get away with the murder. The odds on that are 1 in 2. I know we who watch television police shows have been indoctrinated to believe all or even most murders are solved, but that is simply not the case. Since we are talking about crime let’s look at what the chances are we will be the victims of a serious crime, they are 1 in 20. Accidents are happening all around us every day and mathematics plays a role in them also, because we can calculate the odds of our chances of being killed in a non-transportation accident. These odds are 1 in 69 for our lifetime.

Suppose you are one of those guys who is determined to date a supermodel, what are your chances? I hate to have to tell you this but, you have only 1 chance in 88,000. This means you might have to ask supermodels 88,000 times for a date before you might get one. You have a much better chance of getting hemorrhoids, because the odds are 1 in 25. That is a horrible thought isn’t it? We can’t really blame mathematics for this since science is only telling us about our chances not creating them. Everyone wants their children to become pro athletes. They take their young children to little league, hockey rinks and soccer practice at very tender ages, but the harsh truth is they don’t have much of a chance of making it into the pros. The odds are 1 chance in 22,000, so you really have to hand it to someone who actually makes it.

I think most of us have heard about someone sitting at home and a meteor crashing into their house. This event if far rarer than winning a lottery. The odds are so against this happening you have to wonder how it ever happens. The odds are 1 in 182,138,880,000,000. The average person has a good chance of living another year, because his or her chance of dying during the year is 1 in 1,820. This is heartwarming, but it would be nicer if the numbers were even higher in this case wouldn’t it? This is one area where you don’t want to beat the odds and die. Computers have given us numbers and odds for everything. We had them before, but now they are all available at the touch of a button and can also be figured out for almost anything. Some people should never look at these numbers, because even though they show only remote chances of bad things happening sometimes it is enough to keep some people home. There is a mental illness which causes people to be so scared they won’t leave their houses.

We hear about people committing suicide and some of us worry about our children, since many suicides are of young children. The chance of someone dying because they harmed themselves is 1 in 9,380. This is twice as many chances of dying than the chance of dying in a car accident which is 1 in 18,585. There is a possibility some of these deaths could also be suicides and we are not aware of it. The odds don’t take this into consideration so in this case they could be faulty. One thing I have noticed in life is the fact some people are far luckier than others. They actually defy the odds. I don’t know how to explain this using the odds. It turns out most of us defy the odds at some time or another. Just going to the craps table and getting past the first roll or winning on the first roll defies the odd since at that point they are not in your favor. If it wasn’t for the fact we could defy the odds, no one would win the lottery, or even the humble scratch off ticket. Living past the average age defies the odds as does almost everything you do. What are the chances of meeting someone you know at the store for example or getting a phone call from someone you are thinking about? How about going to a store and the item you want to buy is on sale?

As you can see odds are not an absolute. What a strange world it would be if they were.Β  Can you imagine someone saying he could never go out again because he has been out 9,999,999 times and if he goes out again he will be hit by falling parts from a plane because the chances are 1 in 10,000,000. If the odds were air tight we wouldn’t be able to go out again if we already went out 16, 420 times because the chance of dying in an assault is 16,421. You would have to stay out of the water if you had gotten into it 80,523 times because the chance of drowning is 1 in 81,524.

Yes it is a lucky thing for us odds are not set in stone, but are only a guide of the average number. Numbers are everywhere in our society and indeed are used all over the planet. Perhaps we first started using numbers in our early constructions, but there is no way to know when we really started using them. It must have been hard for the Romans since they had no 0 in their number set and yet look at what they were able to accomplish.Β  Can you imagine them trying to figure odds? You have VII chances in XXXIV. No I don’t like that much do you?

Someone once said odds were made to be broken. I think we prove this everyday, in at least little ways.